There is a warranted discount factor due to BWE management originating from the BW group and the BW group not being big on E&P expertise - management is happy to admit this also face to face. So I actually don't think it's unfair to think there will be always be some hickup every other quarter. That said, I like the assets and their approach to building this. If they only achieve 80% of the LT run-rate production they gun for this should be a winner.
Thanks for the comment! Agree that BWE's management is not a strength, but it is not as bad as other companies. So far, they have been progressively implementing an expansion plan, and in 2024 we can start seeing the results with Dussafu at or above 40,000 bopd and Golfinho with improved profitability. I'm very excited for Maromba and the future of Kudu.
Everybody has a different strategy =) BWE was my largest position, dropped to 2nd after the market reaction, and had to buy some more to put it again at the top.
• Work to fix the reemerged EPS issues at Dussafu constitutes of taking the units to surface to establish the exact cause of failures. The
pumps will then be repaired (works scope likely days to weeks in magnitude, per well) or replaced by new units. The partners have rig
capacity to conduct the work
• Given well downtime, Dussafu production in Q4 is expected at 25-30,000 bpd in Q4 vs previously reported levels of 35-40 bpd
• The 2024 guidance of 27-33,000 bpd is also well below our 38,000 bpd expectation. While anyway a major disappointment, we believe
BWE may have decided to set the guidance at a level that is very likely to be achieved or beaten. Given the recent history of production
guidance downgrades at the asset this would also be the prudent decision, in our view
• Given the issues are equipment related (i.e. not reservoir), lost volumes should be recovered at a later stage
• Following the exploration success in Hibiscus South (link), the partners have decided to drill the 29 mill boe Bourdon prospect
---More comments from PAS
Thanks Elliot
Curious how you got 38,000 bpd expectation? Thanks
There is a warranted discount factor due to BWE management originating from the BW group and the BW group not being big on E&P expertise - management is happy to admit this also face to face. So I actually don't think it's unfair to think there will be always be some hickup every other quarter. That said, I like the assets and their approach to building this. If they only achieve 80% of the LT run-rate production they gun for this should be a winner.
Thanks for the comment! Agree that BWE's management is not a strength, but it is not as bad as other companies. So far, they have been progressively implementing an expansion plan, and in 2024 we can start seeing the results with Dussafu at or above 40,000 bopd and Golfinho with improved profitability. I'm very excited for Maromba and the future of Kudu.
>I like my stocks to go up, I don’t like “opportunities to buy cheap”
I like the opportunity to buy cheap and then watch it go up! :)
TY for heads up, I bought the dip, so far so good
Everybody has a different strategy =) BWE was my largest position, dropped to 2nd after the market reaction, and had to buy some more to put it again at the top.