Nov 16, 2023Liked by Another oil and gas tourist

• Work to fix the reemerged EPS issues at Dussafu constitutes of taking the units to surface to establish the exact cause of failures. The

pumps will then be repaired (works scope likely days to weeks in magnitude, per well) or replaced by new units. The partners have rig

capacity to conduct the work

• Given well downtime, Dussafu production in Q4 is expected at 25-30,000 bpd in Q4 vs previously reported levels of 35-40 bpd

• The 2024 guidance of 27-33,000 bpd is also well below our 38,000 bpd expectation. While anyway a major disappointment, we believe

BWE may have decided to set the guidance at a level that is very likely to be achieved or beaten. Given the recent history of production

guidance downgrades at the asset this would also be the prudent decision, in our view

• Given the issues are equipment related (i.e. not reservoir), lost volumes should be recovered at a later stage

• Following the exploration success in Hibiscus South (link), the partners have decided to drill the 29 mill boe Bourdon prospect

---More comments from PAS

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Nov 17, 2023Liked by Another oil and gas tourist

There is a warranted discount factor due to BWE management originating from the BW group and the BW group not being big on E&P expertise - management is happy to admit this also face to face. So I actually don't think it's unfair to think there will be always be some hickup every other quarter. That said, I like the assets and their approach to building this. If they only achieve 80% of the LT run-rate production they gun for this should be a winner.

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Nov 16, 2023Liked by Another oil and gas tourist

>I like my stocks to go up, I don’t like “opportunities to buy cheap”

I like the opportunity to buy cheap and then watch it go up! :)

TY for heads up, I bought the dip, so far so good

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