Just one comment about allocations, recognizing that hindsight bias is rampant throughout investing analysis/commentary and it takes active work (and a lot of humility) to guard against it.
I did some very crude math to estimate your initial allocations (mad props to the engineer who worked out how to handle tabs in this text box):
That table is drenched in assumptions; it's probably far from the actual case. But that's irrelevant, because I certainly don't mean to take any credit away from your actual achievements here--congratulations on a fantastic year.
I do believe, however, that the viewing angle through which we see achievements in the rearview mirror can strongly influence the lessons we away from them.
For example, portfolio construction is key to playing microcaps. Snagging the top three gainers was undeniably boss-level, but so was starting with rather modest weight in them. Presumably, many of these started out in the 30% long-odds part of your portfolio. What did the other 70% look like and how did they do?
Most of us can't count on skimming the cream in the right sector every year.
Well done, sir! Thanks for sharing
Great post, thanks!
Nivel work, super interesting ideas! Thanks for sharing!
Thanks 🙏
Appreciate your work and willingness to share.
Just one comment about allocations, recognizing that hindsight bias is rampant throughout investing analysis/commentary and it takes active work (and a lot of humility) to guard against it.
I did some very crude math to estimate your initial allocations (mad props to the engineer who worked out how to handle tabs in this text box):
Position Allocation Change Initial Alloc.
Valeura Energy $VLE.TO 21.0% 758.8% 2.4%
Tenaz Energy $TNZ.TO 12.0% 191.6% 4.1%
Sintana Energy $SEI.V 11.4% 173.7% 4.2%
NGEx Minerals $NGEX.TO 8.2% 321.2% 1.9%
Harbour Energy $HBR.L 6.1% -15.2% 7.2%
Sable Offshore $SOC 5.7% -1.0% 5.8%
Nebius Group NV $NBIS 5.7% 45.8% 3.9%
Portfolio Weight 70.1% n/a 29.5%
That table is drenched in assumptions; it's probably far from the actual case. But that's irrelevant, because I certainly don't mean to take any credit away from your actual achievements here--congratulations on a fantastic year.
I do believe, however, that the viewing angle through which we see achievements in the rearview mirror can strongly influence the lessons we away from them.
For example, portfolio construction is key to playing microcaps. Snagging the top three gainers was undeniably boss-level, but so was starting with rather modest weight in them. Presumably, many of these started out in the 30% long-odds part of your portfolio. What did the other 70% look like and how did they do?
Most of us can't count on skimming the cream in the right sector every year.